THE BOARD
23 indicators · data to 2026-08-14 · updated weekly
What this is. Every indicator we watch, what it actually means in
plain words, where it stands now, and which way it is heading. The colour is the condition:
green supportive, amber worth watching, red a warning, grey no
reading yet. The arrow is direction, and it always points the same way morally —
▲ improving,
▼ deteriorating — even for the contrarian
gauges where a rising number is bad news.
Nothing here is filled in by hand unless it says MANUAL. Where a reading is missing it
shows grey and says so, because a blank is an absence and not a clean bill of health.
Is the economy in trouble?the slow-moving fundamentals — these turn over months
Recession risk▲
A scorecard of ten warning lights across borrowing costs, credit and jobs. Low means the economy is not signalling a downturn.
FRED · 12 Aug
Liquidity→
How easy it is to borrow money in the system. This tightens BEFORE the economy slows, so it is the early warning.
FRED · 12 Aug
Yield curve→
The gap between long and short-term interest rates. When short rates exceed long ones, a recession has usually followed.
EODHD · 12 Aug
Real interest rates→
The interest rate after inflation. Above zero means policy is squeezing the economy rather than helping it.
FRED · 1 Jul
Credit spreads▲
The extra interest risky companies must pay over the government. Almost every market break shows up here first.
FRED · 11 Aug
Company profits▲
Whether analysts are raising or cutting their profit forecasts across ~200 large companies.
EODHD · 10 Aug
Is the AI build still running?our own cluster — this is where we do work nobody else does
Capex acceleration▲
Whether the big cloud companies are still SPEEDING UP their spending, not merely spending a lot.
filings · Q2
Capex vs cash flow▼
How much of the building is paid for out of the business itself. Above 100% means they are borrowing to build.
filings · Q2
Funding ladder▼
What private AI labs are paying to raise money. When the price they raise at stops rising, the money is getting tired.
private mkts · Jul
Data-centre supply→
Whether there is spare capacity. Empty buildings and falling rents would mean the boom has overbuilt.
JLL/CBRE · Jul
Cloud growth→
Whether cloud revenue is still accelerating. The danger sign is spending going up while sales slow down.
filings · Q2
Return on new capex→
Whether the money already spent is earning anything back. The question everyone avoids.
filings · 11 Aug
How stretched are investors?slow positioning — weeks to months
Margin debt▼
How much investors have borrowed to buy shares. Above +60% a year has marked three major tops since 1997 and nothing else.
FINRA · Jun
Shares above trend→
What share of the 500 largest US companies are trading above their own one-year average. Broad participation, not just a few giants.
EODHD · 2026-08-14
Small-investor mood▲
A weekly survey asking private investors if they are bullish. Contrarian: when everyone is optimistic, that is the warning.
AAII · 13 Aug · MANUAL
Is the market itself wobbling?fast positioning — days to weeks
Fear gauge (VIX)▼
What options cost, which is what investors pay to protect themselves. Contrarian: cheap protection means nobody is worried, which is when trouble starts.
EODHD · 12 Aug
Single-stock stress▲
How jumpy individual shares are compared with the index. A calm index hiding violent moves underneath is a classic late-cycle tell.
CBOE · 2026-08-14
New highs vs new lows▲
How many shares are near a one-year high against how many are near a low. 35–50% has preceded major pullbacks.
EODHD · 2026-08-14
Overbought share▼
What fraction of shares have run too far too fast. A low number means there is room left, not that something is wrong.
EODHD · 2026-08-14
Turbulence→
The average fall of the five worst shares each day. Persistent punishment beneath a calm surface.
EODHD · 2026-08-14
The tripwirespre-committed. Two of three firing declares a regime change, no debate
Cloud capex cuts→
The five biggest AI spenders cutting their published plans. History says they cut together or not at all.
guidance · Q2
Credit speed→
Not the level of credit stress but how FAST it is changing. Speed matters more than level.
FRED · 11 Aug
Profit forecasts▲
Watch-light only: it informs, it cannot trigger, because we cannot back-test it honestly.
EODHD · 10 Aug
supportive
watch
warning
no reading
Sparklines show the recent path where we hold real history; where we do not, the tile says so
rather than drawing a flat line. Internal working document — it exposes our thresholds.
Research, not advice.